One way to look at a region’s success is Gross State Product (GSP) per Capita. GSP, the per-state version of GDP, is the monetary value of goods and services produced in a state. When you divide that number by the population, you get GSP per Capita.
It may be that this is also the ultimate predictor of a both party affiliation and a tendency to flip. But is there any logic to it?
Here is the scoop. The top 22 states as measured by GSP per capita voted for the same party in 2016 as they did in 2012. 18 of these most prosperous states voted for the Democratic candidate both times.
The worst performing 22 states overwhelmingly voted Republican in both recent presidential elections, with only 4 voting Democrat, and 2 changing from Democrat to Republican from 2012 to 2016.
Of the 6 states in the middle of the GSP per Capital measurement, all 6 voted Republican in 2016.
The big news? 4 of these states flipped from the Democratic candidate in 2012 to Mr. Trump in 2016. They are Pennsylvania, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ohio.
Will these states soon be rising in GSP per capita or falling further to the bottom?